Southwest Monsoon Likely to be Below Normal this Year.

Southwest Monsoon Likely to be Below Normal this Year.

April 5, 2019.

Many parts of India still depend on monsoon for their agricultural needs. So it is not a piece of good news for these sectors because private forecast Skymet Weather said on Wednesday that South-West Monsoon (June-September) seems to be ‘below normal’, at around 93 percent of the long-period average (LPA) this year.

Skymet Weather is the first to forecast for the monsoon season of 2019. It is expected that the India Met Department (IMD) will come out with its own forecast by mid-April.

The forecast by Skymet Weather was based on January findings which indicated that chances of El Nino are fading rapidly. Normal rains have been predicted by Skymet in their preliminary monsoon forecast guidance on February 25. The probability of normal monsoon seems to be at about 50 percent but also found a ‘significant chance’ of rainfall ending below normal.

On the other hand, circumstances changed fully in February because moderate conditions of El Nino emerging over the Pacific Ocean. Skymet Weather said that an El Nino could be declared at any time now.

“The Pacific is now strongly warmer than average. Model projections indicate 80 percent chance of El Nino conditions during March-May, dropping to 60 percent for June-August,” said Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh.

Singh said, this means “it is going to be a devolving El Nino year, though retaining threshold values all through the season,”. “Thus, monsoon 2019 is likely to be below normal.”

An error margin of 5 percent has noticed by Skymet while computing the rainfall at 93 percent of the LPA of 89 cm during June-September. It sees very rare chances of excess rainfall.

At the starting in the month of June rainfall would seems to be very low and the resultant rain deficit may spill into July. Better rainfall would be seen in the second half of the season.

Add a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *